Trump's inauguration is my biggest Polymarket bet ever
Here's what I think Trump will (not) say at the inauguration
What will Donald Trump’s second inaugural address be about?
As far as Polymarket degens are concerned, it might very well be about crypto. I’m betting they’re wrong.
Today, I’m covering:
What Polymarket traders think Trump will mention on January 20
What we know (or don’t) about Trump’s inaugural address
Why I’m betting that the market is delusional
What will Trump say in his inauguration speech?
For those not in the know, Polymarket has a subset of markets called mention markets. You can bet on or against certain words to be mentioned at an event.
For instance, in the run-up to the election, mentions markets for Trump rallies were a staple, where you could bet on the wildest shit:
There are also mentions markets for other events: debates, Federal Reserve press conferences, Biden’s farewell speech, you name it. But Trump, of course, still draws the most liquidity.
Long story short, the mentions market for his inaugural address is close to $5 million in trading volume and will probably triple by Monday. Here are the odds as of 39 hours before the main event:
If you’re reading this as a Polymarket trader, you know the deal. But if you’re hearing about mentions markets for the first time, you must be thinking: why the fresh hell would someone bet on this?
Why I like certain mentions markets
Especially one-off events like the inauguration are purely subjective and therefore can be very profitable. There’s almost no historical data to draw upon, no model you can apply, no statistics. The more subjective a market, the heavier a role common sense and good judgement play. For instance, I found Trump rally mentions tough to bet because the market figured out quickly how often Trump says certain things. The fact it was a series of games made the market quite efficient. On the other hand, debate markets or one-off speeches by Biden were far less efficiently priced. I have found these markets to be the best to trade.
Here’s how Claude summarizes the expectations of Polymarket degens for Trump’s address: a heavy focus on traditional conservative themes and economic issues, with an emphasis on technology policy though crypto and AI.
So far, so good. But what do we know about the themes of Trump’s inaugural address?
Trump’s inauguration speech is a well-kept secret
The answer: not much.
In fact, I could only find two data points that hint at the themes. One is from his December interview with NBC, where he said it would focus on “unity.”
The other is from a recent Axios story and cites a “person familiar with the plans” saying pretty much the same — it will be less dark and focused on “unity” and “light.”
Now what Trump means by unity is debatable. He could mean unity of all Americans against illegal immigrants and the liberal press probably would label the speech as stressing “light.”
But if we look at his speech at the Republican National Convention (the part before he started tambling for an hour), we can get some pointers. This is an actual quote from a Trump speech, believe it or not:
The discord and division in our society must be healed. We must heal it quickly. As Americans, we are bound together by a single fate and a shared destiny. We rise together. Or we fall apart.
I am running to be president for all of America, not half of America, because there is no victory in winning for half of America.
Here’s another excerpt that would fit the unity/light theme:
One last piece of information we can look at is his previous inaugural address and the pattern of inaugural speeches in general. In 2017, the focus themes were economic decline, anti-establishment messaging, and “America First.” But importantly, it was not a campaign speech. It was 17 minutes long and ‘presidential’ in tone. In other words, no "‘weave’, no cussing the Democrats but a traditional teleprompter speech with Trump flavor.
Now, let’s get to the good part. I think the market is criminally off on some prices. And I put a lot of skin in the game to back up my views.
Here’s where I think the market is wrong
My thesis is based on two, IMHO, clear biases in the market:
Misunderstanding the audience
The market prices a lot of mentions as if this were a policy speech. Take the ceasefire mention, where I only have a modest position so far. If this were a policy speech or a State of the Union address, that price would be much more realistic. But inaugural addresses are broad and statesmanlike. POTUS speaks not only to Americans but to the world. This is not the place to tout specific policies, or in this case recent developments.
Imo, the fair price for a ceasefire mention is under 5%. So I’m probably not done buying yet.
Another example is a Trump rally favorite: “rigged.” Trump closed his rallies with a standard shoutout to make the election “too big to rig.” It was regularly priced at 80%+. Of course, the price here is much lower, but I still think it’s way too high. The fair price is under 2% imo.
Claude agrees with me. I let it compare his 2017 speech with what the market expects his 2025 speech to be. Here’s what Claude had to say:
Recency bias
The second reason why imo a lot of prices are hilariously wrong is strong recency bias. The speech, for all we know, was already finished in mid-December when NBC interviewed Trump. He already knew the themes (“unity…you’ll like it”). But the market is heavily overpricing recent events, such as the ceasefire in Gaza, the fires in Los Angeles, and, most importantly, Trump’s new memecoin.
Because Trump being Trump, of course he launched a memecoin two days before becoming the sitting president. Not only did the memecoin go wild, but so is the market on a crypto mention. It was priced around 15% a few days ago (which was already too high imo) but it has tripled since. First, because Trump reportedly wants to declare crypto a national priority. There’s a 50%+ chance of him signing an executive order on crypto on day 1 (I actually bet on that). But then he also launched a memecoin and the market has gone wild.
I dare Trump to mention crypto
Here’s my No thesis: crypto is a niche topic. Trump has never mentioned it outside of the Bitcoin conference and bro podcasts. Not at his rallies, not at interviews, never. Crypto is a special interest group, it’s the new swamp that will rule in DC. But ordinary Americans still don’t care about crypto. It wasn’t even in the top 10 of voter priorities. They could not care less about becoming a ‘leader in cryptocurrency’ because most think (correctly) it’s all a scam. I believe recency bias meets wrong place wrong time here and I have put my money where my mouth is:
Fair price if you ask me? Somewhere between 5-10%.
For similar reasons, I believe Trump will not shout out ‘President Musk’. The last thing Americans want to be reminded of is that they’re about to be governed by a bunch of billionaires.
Could I be wrong?
Of course. Someone may have insider info and Trump really shouts out American leadership in AI and crypto. It’s possible. But I don’t think the inauguration is the place or the time where he will do it. I also do not expect Trump to get derailed like he tends to (and was at the RNC) because the world is watching. This time everything will be professional and disciplined.
Claude agrees with me on this one:
This is easily my biggest bet ever on Polymarket. It’s also the biggest mispricing I’ve seen. A crypto mention at the debate with Biden was a similar price. Back then, my size was not size yet, but I also bet against it and won. If I lose, at least the markets will have the green light to pump, so we will just have to run it back.
On Monday we’ll know who’s right.
What do I do now?
As you can see, I am insane and you should not consider any of the above investment or life advice. DYOR if you think you need to bet on 78-year olds not saying words.
Next, subscribe to my Substack to learn alongside me how to improve your decision-making (or what not to do):
Thanks for reading and good luck!
The speech is over, and you were absolutely correct on every word! 😮🙏