FIFA World Cup R32 Preview ⚽️
The best World Cup ever? Let's make it the most profitable one...
It’s been a fun and successful World Cup thus far, so I wanted to share my thoughts, research, and bets for the upcoming R32. Warning: I’m no sharp or anything, just a guy looking at other people’s models that has watched a ton of matches over the years and can spot a pattern or two.
Let’s go!
Preface: I wrote the Canada preview yesterday before the match. Worked out quite nicely in the end, even if we needed to get lucky after Canada wasted a bunch of chances!
🇿🇦South Africa vs 🇨🇦Canada
Team impressions:
I watched South Africa in the first two matches and thought they’re one of the weakest sides in the tournament. Looked amateurish vs Mexico and outplayed vs Czechia for the first 30mins. Then Czechia inexplicably retreated and managed to concede a pen. No idea how they beat South Korea, didn’t watch. They created only 1.82 non-pen xG, meaning they’re one of the weakest attacking teams in R32 and worse than some eliminated teams (hello Scotland). Their defense is okay-ish, but mind you they played rather tame opposition.
Canada have been somewhat of a positive surprise imo. I watched all three matches and they’re kind of incompetent and not clinical, but also play with urgency and intensity. Against Qatar they weren’t wasting time at set pieces even at 5-0. Their stats are pretty decent, even if you exclude the 4.6 xG against Qatar (2.9 xG left). Canada play the classic Jesse Marsh RB high press, high intensity, win-the-ball-up-high-and-charge-at-goal type of football. I think that style will do well against South Africa, much less so in the next round.
Team news/Conditions:
No particular news. South Africa are still missing the defender that got sent off against Mexico (Zwane), Canada will miss Koné (broken leg) and I reckon Davies will not start but be available off the bench. The conditions should play no role here.
Odds & Bets:
I have a pre-tournament bet on Canada to reach R16 at odds of 3 courtesy of Neil Mac's Soccer Betting Edge, which I’ll be sitting on. Current odds look fair to me. Canada are clear favorites and should win this in 90 minutes, but this is still Canada we’re talking about. They took 75mins to score against Bosnia, so I would not be shocked at all if something similar happened again. The win is somewhat shorter than Korea were, but mind you that Canada don’t play this one at home. I’d be more comfortable with this line if they played in Vancouver. I might bet Canada in-play around 2.0 or better, depending on how they’re looking.
🇧🇷Brazil vs 🇯🇵Japan
Team impressions:
This is a tricky one. Brazil played two Mickey Mouse teams and one dark horse and looked good against the former but pedestrian against the latter. I wasn’t impressed at all with the match against Morocco, where Brazil showed up with basically no midfield at all and equalized thanks to some class play by Vini. Didn’t watch them against Haiti and then Scotland basically gifted them three goals in a routine win. So I struggle to assess whether Brazil are trash or, in fact, wildly underrated and improving with each match. They have the second-highest xG in the tournament but again, their opposition was weak. Their conceded xG is solid but not spectacular at 2.64 and just slightly better than Germany (bad defense!) and a lot worse than Japan (1.48 xG conceded).
Japan are also a bit confusing to me. They were decent against the Netherlands but I felt also a bit lucky to come back twice in a match that was dull before the half and then surprisingly opened up. They beat up Tunisia in what looked a very fluid performance based on the 5mins of highlights I saw. Against Sweden I thought they struggled a bit and the positive xG difference doesn’t tell the full story. Sweden had more shots and had two good chances in stoppage time to win it. The odds on Sweden also dumped before that match, which in hindsight was correct. Japan have made a name for themselves as a technically strong side but at least thus far, their defense has been more impressive. The conceded xG is the second-lowest in the tournament and they played two good attacks in Sweden and the Netherlands. The roughly 2 xG created against those two teams is not spectacular but solid.
Team news/Conditions:
Raphinha is out for the tournament for Brazil. So far, they haven’t felt the loss because they only had to take on Scotland without him. But I think that will be a factor in this match and in possible subsequent ones. Japan are missing Kubo (started against NED). Conditions won’t be a factor because the stadium in Houston has aircon.
Odds & Bets:
Brazil lost this match last October 2-3 after a 2-0 lead, but I don’t ascribe too much value to friendlies. I expect this to look similar to the Netherlands-Japan match in the first half. A lot of possession for Brazil, Japan defending in a compact block, conceding very few chances and looking to break when possible. I have Japan +0,5 (2.27) and Japan to progress (3.6) at the moment, but I actually like the under 2.5 around even money the most for now. I don’t expect an early goal, but even if we got one I don’t think it would necessarily open a lot. I think Brazil should not get the benefit of the doubt here and should be a bit higher odds (1.85), considering they were the same price vs Morocco and struggled. The under should imo come in a bit (1.8). Gun to my head I’d say Brazil advance, but this could easily go to extra time.
🇩🇪Germany vs 🇵🇾Paraguay
Team impressions:
Germany have finally made a knockout round again, but it’s been pretty bumpy. The match against Curacao was the expected warm-up. They struggled against CIV but played what I thought was a strong second half against an underrated opponent. The last match against ECU was a predictable shitshow and all hell has broken loose again in Germany over the manager’s questionable choices for that match (deservedly so). I don’t think Germany are as bad as the vibes are now, but they also won’t be good enough to get past France next round. 2.5 xG against non-Curacao teams aren’t impressive but also not shocking. The 2.5 xG conceded are a bit more worrisome.
Lucky for Germany, Paraguay are the worst attacking side left in the tournament with 2 goals scored from 1.1 xG. Their xG per shot is as bad as Curacao’s and Panama’s, so you couldn’t ask for a better opponent if you wanted to keep a clean sheet for the first time in 12 years at a World Cup like Germany do. At the same time, they conceded 4 goals from 4.14 xG. If Türkiye hadn’t been so insanely wasteful (they created as many xG as Germany but are out!), we’d be probably looking at a legendary Germany vs little Germany goalfest. I haven’t seen a single Paraguay match in all fairness, but based on watching Australia and the stats, I have a pretty good impression of what they’re all about.
Team news/Conditions:
Germany should get back Brown as starting LB. Their best CB Schlotterbeck will miss the rest of the tournament. Nagelsmann hinted at changes in the starting 11, a case of better late than never? Paraguay will miss a starting midfield in Gómez through suspension and likely a starting defender in Alderete through injury but get back their suspended midfielder in Almirón. Conditions should be warm but manageable.
Odds & Bets:
I think Germany could not have wished for a better opponent here. They got a good taste in what’s awaiting them in the match against Ecuador, facing a stronger team with a similar approach. Paraguay strike me as a very limited side and even this subpar Germany should have no problem dispatching them. I generally treat Germany these days as flat-track bully: they beat the weaker teams but don’t have what it takes for the serious opponents. I bet Germany-1,5 at 2.11, which I expect to drop to 1.9 before kick-off. I’m also bidding for Germany to keep a clean sheet around even money for the old 12-year mean reversion play. And I have a Germany to be eliminated in R16 bet at 2.1, but we’ll hopefully get to that next round.
🇳🇱Netherlands vs 🇲🇦Morocco
Team impressions:
I still don’t know what to make of the Dutch. Are they this great and beating their metrics because they’re quality or are they just good and due for some mean reversion? They put 10 goals from 5.24 xG past their opponents for the highest xG beat and best conversion rate of the group stage. I thought they looked mediocre first half vs Japan but then could have easily won it. They absolutely bossed Sweden and made them look like a Mickey Mouse team. I didn’t bother with the last match because everybody got to beat up Tunisia. Ironically their defense is even better stats-wise with 4 goals from only 2.22 xG conceded. Making the change to start Brobbey up front has worked great, he’s scored 3 goals from 3 shots on target.
Holland would be heavy favorite against anyone if they weren’t facing one of the best second-placed teams in Morocco. They created only 1.2 xG less and scored one fewer goal against the same opponents compared to the mighty Brazil (but still 6 goals and 6.13 xG). I saw them play Brazil and Haiti and was impressed as most people. This is a good team that will be hard to beat for anyone, they’re good on the ball, they have an attacking threat in Saibari and they can play physical without being unfair (3rd-highest fouls but only one booking conceded.)
Team news/Conditions:
Both teams have no suspensions or injuries. But this seems to be a major heat match. Based on my research, the teams will play in 30 degree heat even in the evening hours, so that could become a factor during the match.
Odds & Bets:
This is maybe the best R32 matchup but a difficult one to bet on. Netherlands are a better team than Brazil but much higher odds at 2.3 (vs Brazil at 1.7 in the group stage). At the same time, I don’t think this is unwarranted given that Morocco are the best African team and overall a top 8 side. I have a position on x2 Morocco for now but will likely keep most exposure as a prematch trade. Goals look also a coinflip. Morocco weren’t in fact as solid as you’d expect (3 xG conceded), but I’d expect them to keep this tight and not go into a shootout. The heat could also become a factor in the match. A lot of question marks for me, I’ll probably start with a small x2 and under position and manage from there. Another match that could easily go extra time.
🇨🇮Côte d’Ivoire vs 🇳🇴Norway
Team impressions:
CIV are a solid team that can give almost any team at the tournament a scare. The match against Ecuador was surprisingly open, but they ended up being more clinical to get the goal. They played pretty well against Germany for 60mins but then Germany found the extra gear and deservedly won. I didn’t watch the last match. They’re good going forward through Diomande but at the same time not all that stable at the back with roughly 4 xG created and conceded. Strikes me as a team that can run up and down the pitch but is prone to losing such a match against a side with more quality like they did against Germany.
Norway are probably one of the most exciting teams at the tournament. Unfortunately, I only saw the last match where they fielded a B-team against France, but based on the stats, they’re an elite attacking team (top 3 in shot conversion and xG/shot). Their defense doesn’t seem that solid, they gave up >1 xG in all three matches and have conceded 7 from 4.02 xG. Makes me think they have the raw talent to challenge any team but are also prone to messing up on a bad day.
Team news/Conditions:
Both could be missing a starting defender here: Singo for CIV and Ryerson for Norway. Conditions will play no role since the stadium has aircon.
Odds & Bets:
I like the over here and will try to get exposure on that and both teams to score at evens or better. I think Norway are deserved favorites but this is the type of match and opponent they can lose to. I bought some exposure on Norway to make the QF at 3+, which I like more than the straight win or qualification here. If they get past this tricky opponent, they will be favorite at a similar price vs Japan or a better price than Japan are now vs Brazil. In other words, I can see them going deep once they win the first knockout stage match.
🇫🇷France vs 🇸🇪Sweden
Team impressions:
France are no doubt the best team and the one to beat at the tournament. They have 3 of the 5 best attacking players in the world starting and a couple more top class ones as replacement. They looked pretty pedestrian first half vs Senegal but then shifted gears and won comfortably. Iraq was kind of a training match as was the last one to be fair since Norway tanked. Their stats are good but not yet elite (5.96-2.86 xG). The issue is I don’t think they will face elite opposition before the QF.
Sweden did well to recover from that beatdown in the match against the Netherlands where they were thoroughly outclassed. I thought they played well against Japan, but I’m very skeptical about their defense and their ability to pressure France in midfield. They ended on 7-7 goals but 2.98-4.09 xG and some of their pressing stats are as bad as those of Scotland and Curacao. It also felt that way watching them play. I think if France take them seriously, it could get ugly.
Team news/Conditions:
Saliba should be available again based on my research. Sweden will miss a key defender in Isak Hien, which won’t help their cause. It seems like temperatures will be high on Tuesday, so that could be a factor for in-match game management.
Odds & Bets:
Unsurprisingly, I like France here and bet the -1,5 when it was available at 1.87. It has shortened since and I think it will drop further before kick-off. This is a bad matchup for Sweden, who have a paper-thin defense. They conceded 5 against Holland and were made to look silly. They also lost 3-1 in a prep match before the tournament to Norway. France should want to close this out quickly and decisively to conserve energy for more demanding opponents.
🇲🇽Mexico vs 🇪🇨Ecuador
Team impressions:
I watched Mexico’s opener and the first half against Korea and that was enough for me. A team that keeps you on the edge of your seat this is not. But they’re steady as they come: sit back, absorb pressure, build up slowly from the back. They overperformed their stats by quite a margin (6-0 goals vs 3.73-1.51 xG) but will still be difficult to beat for mediocre teams, especially considering the home advantage.
Ecuador are the similar but slightly more exciting version of Mexico: press higher, create more chances on the break, but also less solid at the back. They were wasteful against Curacao but got it done against an unfocused Germany. The match against CIV could have gone either way to be fair, but they conceded a few too many chances in that one for my liking. Their group was also much tougher than Mexico’s, who probably had the weakest overall. I’m just not sure they will be clinical enough to put Mexico away, because there probably won’t be many chances in the match.
Team news/Conditions:
No absences for either team and conditions will be the usual altitude play in CdM. Ecuador are used to this, so no advantage for Mexico here.
Odds & Bets:
I will pass on watching this middle-of-the-night match, which will probably be thoroughly unexciting with few chances. Odds look correct-ish to me, maybe slightly on the higher side for Ecuador. Under looks pretty accurate too, so this is just a no-bet for me and I’ll hope Mexico cash the R16 pre-tournament bet that I have running on them.
🏴England vs 🇨🇩DR Congo
Team impressions:
As much as I want to be impressed by England, I can’t say I see a massive difference between Tuchel England and Southgate England. England look a lot like Arsenal to me in the way they play. No wonder their set piece xG is the highest of any of the big nations. I thought they were good against Croatia but helped by Croatia’s amateurish defense. Against Ghana and Panama they were rather poor and not clinical in front of goal but then again, these will probably never be the types of matches England shines in. I think they will be fine in the knockout matches, considering Tuchel is a top tier manager for ko matches. But I also consider this match specifically to be a very similar matchup to the Ghana match that England struggled in.
Congo are a classic African team: solid at the back, hope for something to go their way through a set piece or a counterattack up front. They looked outclassed against Portugal for about 15mins, then recovered and somehow scored and didn’t look too troubled in the second half. Didn’t watch them against Colombia, but against Uzbekistan they deservedly got the job done in the second half when they had to score twice to win. So I’d consider this a team that has seen different types of matchups and situations and has come through, which will make them hard to beat. Their stats are obviously worse than England’s, but when you look at the xG/shot in attack and defense, they’re actually equal. I think one of their main problems will be conceding set pieces: Congo are in the top third for fouls and bookings conceded and with England’s set piece strength, that could cost them.
Team news/Conditions:
England will be missing two RB in James and Quansah, which means they will probably start a CB in that position. No absences for Congo. Match will be played in climate-controlled conditions.
Odds & Bets:
I don’t see a pre-match bet here. Gun to my head I think England win this 1-0/2-0 off a set piece and/or one successful attacking sequence, but that is what the market prices in. This could go like England-Senegal 2022 (3-0) or like England-Slovakia 2024 (1-1 after 90mins with a 95th minute equalizer, 2-1 in extra time). And this is pretty much what the market expects as well. The under looks a solid option but not a no-brainer. England did in fact concede quite a few chances against Panama and that match could have easily gone over. It’s also much shorter than the under against Ghana and even a bit shorter than the under in Portugal-Congo. I’m bidding at odds-against but not lower. Probably one best left for in-play betting.
🇧🇪Belgium vs 🇸🇳Senegal
Team impressions:
I didn’t see a great deal of either team here, so this is a match-up I will not get too involved in. Belgium looked like Belgium in the match against Iran that I saw: creating and wasting chances. Their tournament stats are pretty good (6.79-1.94 xG), but they still only got the job done in the final match against the weakest opponent. There’s nothing that leads me to believe this story doesn’t end as it always does for Belgium: elimination by a stronger opponent or an unlucky exit because they weren’t clinical enough.
I also only watched Senegal once, against France. They played a good first half and could have easily taken the lead, but then faded when France stepped it up and got exposed at the back. That weakness also showed against Norway, but they ran up the score impressively against Iraq, so this is no circus team. Their stats are understandably worse then Belgium’s (5.25-4.12 xG), but they also played the best team in the tournament and one of the most prolific attacking sides in Norway. For an African side they’re unusually strong in attack but have serious weaknesses in defense, with 2 goals conceded from errors and much weaker pressing stats than Belgium.
Team news/Conditions:
From what I could gather the only question mark on either side is Mendy in goal for Senegal. He missed the match against Iraq and might be available here but that’s still TBD. Conditions should not be an issue, the match will be played in Seattle.
Odds & Bets:
I like the goals here and bet both teams to score around 1.95. Both teams look better going forward than in defense and this should be a fairly open match with chances on either side. The money line looks roughly accurate, maybe a bit on the low side for Belgium but not crazy value. I’m bidding x2 Senegal at 1.8 or higher. This is the type of match Belgium should win but can easily lose: Senegal are a good team that can’t quite hang with the best but can definitely take down the teams one level below and I’d consider Belgium to be in that tier.
🇺🇸USA vs 🇧🇦Bosnia
Team impressions:
Team USA is getting a lot of love, which I think is partly deserved partly overblown. On the one hand, they played a good group stage against teams that are roughly their paygrade and that they could also lose to. I only watched the match against Australia in full, which was the most unimpressive but still a deserved win. The second half against Turkey was a bit of garbage time play and this match would have no doubt been more interesting if Turkey still had something to play for. On the other hand, they also heavily outperformed their stats (8-4 goals but 4.62-3.89 xG) and lost to the first decent side that was playing for pride only. The home advantage and the draw should carry them here and possibly even one more round, but I still don’t consider this a good team.
Lucky for Team USA, Bosnia are the worst side left in the draw. They laughably outperformed their stats (5-6 goals from 1.87-4.07 xG) in a weak group. Had they not played Qatar in the last match, they’d be out for sure and even that was a fairly close call. Qatar had a couple of chances and Bosnia scored from rather low-percentage situations. The best thing I can say about them is that they fight, but they also invite too much pressure and generally don’t look solid in defense at all. They should also be on heavy legs as the match progresses, having had the hardest travel schedule of all teams and two matches in daytime heat.
Team news/Conditions:
No new absences for either side and conditions will be no issue.
Odds & Bets:
Team USA is a deserved favorite here, but I can’t quite bet them at such short odds against a team that managed to eliminate Italy in a knockout match after all. I bet the US to reach the QF at evens, so I don’t mind if this is quick and easy but that would still surprise me. The best value imo is USA to win the second half, which I’m bidding around 1.8. I’ll pass on watching this match, but I expect Bosnia to fade in the second half the same way they did against Canada and Switzerland. Fatigue and travel should catch up with them, so unless the US team is up 3 goals at half-time, I’d expect them to keep going for it in the second half and win that on stamina alone.
🇪🇸Spain vs 🇦🇹Austria
Team impressions:
Spain aren’t getting a lot of love, which I can partly understand but find partly overblown. I only watched them against Uruguay and that was an unspectacular match with few chances that could have easily ended 0-0 if Muslera hadn’t gifted Spain the goal. Their group was easy and they still didn’t shine, so there are deservedly some question marks, particularly when it comes to scoring goals. Spain created 5.26 xG but only 0.10 xG/shot, which is much lower than the 0.18 Norway and Brazil created against similar or better opponents. Their defense has been elite: 0.54 xG and 0.04 xG/shot are tournament-best. Their passing game is also as good as ever (most passes in the final third and the highest completion rate at that). They just don’t create enough chances and they’re bad at converting the ones they have. I think this will become a problem very soon, but Austria shouldn’t be the team able to exploit it.
Austria were incredibly lucky to advance in that legendary 3-3 buzzer beater finish against Algeria. They looked super nervous in that match and conceded on pretty much every Algerian attack. I also saw the second half against Jordan, where they weren’t much better. Argentina outclassed them and they never really threatened in that one. Their xG is negative (3.71-4.49), which isn’t a good look in a group with two soft opponents. I don’t think this Austrian team is as good as the one in 2024. Their pressing is worse, their defense looks leaky, and they still don’t have a real threat in attack. They can beat teams at their level or worse, but they rarely play quality opposition and I expect this to show.
Team news/Conditions:
Williams and Pino are out for Spain, Austria will likely miss Alaba and Arnautovic. Those are bigger blows to Austria than to Spain, because they’d miss two key starters vs two substitutes. Conditions don’t seem to be an issue.
Odds & Bets:
I’m bidding some Spain -1,5 as a prematch trade, but I don’t think I’ll hold onto it going into the match. I’d expect that line to come in a bit when/if Alaba and Arnautovic are confirmed out. But I’m not confident this Spain team can actually cover it >50% given how pedestrian their attack looks. Austria should give them enough looks and I’d expect Spain to create something like the 1.5 non-penalty xG that Argentina created against Austria. They won’t give up much, so this could be another rather unspectacular match if there’s no early goal. Ultimately, Spain will have too much and if I had to guess I’d also say they cover the handicap, but 2026 Spain isn’t as good as the 2024 version so I’d be careful betting on that.
🇵🇹Portugal vs 🇭🇷Croatia
Team impressions:
Portugal have been thoroughly disappointing so far. I watched all three of their matches and they were shit against Colombia, shit for 75mins against Congo after taking the lead, good against Uzbekistan. The only good thing you can say about them is that the tournament only starts now and they already won a big tournament after a poor group stage (2016 Euro). Coincidentally, they eliminated Croatia in extra time back then. Their xG is pretty poor, considering Portugal got to juice the numbers against Uzbekistan (4.19-2.81). Ronaldo is basically useless against physical opponents and/or teams with a good defense. I don’t think Croatia are either, so that could work in their favor. The next potential match-up against Spain is also not the worst for Portugal since they’d face a team with a very similar profile and the same strengths and weaknesses. In the QF they’d play USA/Belgium/Senegal, which are also beatable. So it’s not all that bad, but they need to start showing up.
Croatia did what they do best in the group: don’t play too well, muddle through, outperform their stats. I think their xG is the biggest net outperformance of all (5-5 goals from 2.77-4.39 xG). Their defense looked amateurish against England, they got somewhat lucky in the first half against Panama, and scored from two low-percentage situations against Ghana. This is kind of Croatia’s thing—they never create much but manage to take their chances while being scrappy and difficult to eliminate. I don’t think this is a good team, but Portugal aren’t in form, so I’d be surprised if Croatia don’t put up a fight.
Team news/Conditions:
No absences I could find. Both managers will have a few players to pick from in terms of making changes to the line-up. Conditions should be fine.
Odds & Bets:
If Portugal were in shape, I’d happily bet them at this price. But they aren’t, and even considering this Croatia side looks rather average, I just can’t make a case for any value on Portugal. Unlike for other matches, we have a bit of useful recent history. These two met in 2024 in the Nations League. Portugal won 2-1 at home and drew 1-1 in Croatia but slightly lost both on expected goals. There was also a friendly before that in 2024 that Croatia won 2-1 away with more shots and more chances created. So by any means, this could be quite an even match if the subpar Portugal of the group stage turns up again. In 2016, Portugal won 1-0 in extra time after being outplayed. I wouldn’t be shocked by a similar scoreline. Odds look fair for now. If Portugal show up with urgency and intensity like they did against Uzbekistan, they can dispatch Croatia quite easily. But that’s too much of a question mark for me.
🇨🇭Switzerland vs 🇩🇿Algeria
Team impressions:
Switzerland had a pretty easy group and took the 7 points you could expect from them, even if the draw didn’t come in the match you’d think it did. I think starting Manzambi elevated this team, even if they could have easily coughed up the 2-0 lead they had against Canada. Switzerland generally tend to do well against teams of their calibre but come up just short against better sides. I don’t think it will be different this time, even if they win this round and make it past Colombia in the next to face Argentina in the QF.
I only saw Algeria in that legendary 3-3 against Austria, which is probably not a good measuring stick considering the result both teams needed. Their statistics look passable (3.88-3.38 xG vs 5-7 goals) and they got the points you’d expect them to get. They will probably sit back and ask Switzerland to break them down, so this could be another slow grindfest.
Team news/Conditions:
Algeria will miss Amoura, Switzerland potentially Widmer. No critical absences. Conditions won’t be a factor.
Odds & Bets:
I like the under here and am bidding 1.8 or higher in what I expect to be a slow and boring match. I also bought some Switzerland at 2+ because I expect the line to come in again before kick-off. This is the type of matchup Switzerland tends to win, though I don’t think it will be easy by any means. Fair odds for me should be around 1.85-1.9 and 1.7 for the under. I’ll give this a pass since it’s played at 5am CET.
🇦🇺Australia vs 🇪🇬Egypt
Team impressions:
Australia did well to get out of the group with their usual defensive style. They got lucky that Turkey wasted their chances, then couldn’t do much against the US and got the expected draw to qualify. They’re every bit as defensive and destructive as you’d expect (2.08-2.68 xG), and I wouldn’t be surprised if they can frustrate Egypt with that style.
I didn’t watch Egypt at all, so I can’t really say anything about them. 5 points in that group is solid, even if they were 10cm away from losing to Iran and coming third. Their stats are unimpressive (5-3 goals from 3.79-4.56 xG). Australia’s style should be vaguely familiar to them, but that won’t make things any easier.
Team news/Conditions:
Egypt are (potentially) missing quite a few players: Salah looks a game-time decision and would obviously be a huge blow. They’ll miss a starting midfielder in Lasheen through suspension. Another starting defender in Fathy is confirmed and yet another in Fatouh looks likely.
Odds & Bets:
I can’t say much about these sides, so I’ll keep stakes low. But I do like the draw and the Australia 1x here at 1.65+. Depending on Salah’s status, I’d even fancy Australia, but it looks a very draw-heavy match so anything above 3 is worth a play for me. No read on the goals, especially with all the missing defenders for Egypt. Should be a close one.
🇦🇷Argentina vs 🇨🇻Cape Verde
Team impressions:
Argentina, or specifically Messi, have been the standout performers so far. The group was easy, but they still made it look easy and played well at that. 8-1 goals from 5.75-1.61 xG is the type of outperformance I’d ascribe to quality, specifically Messi’s finishing quality. They couldn’t have asked for a better draw either. Cape Verde instead of the projected Uruguay R32, then potentially Switzerland and Colombia aren’t the type of teams you’d expect to run Argentina really close. I do think there are some unresolved issues: their final third passes are as low as Sweden’s (but also on par with Brazil and Norway). Their pressing isn’t that great either, on par with Mexico and, funny enough, France. They like to sit back and absorb pressure, but also don’t break quickly. Instead they build up slowly and look for that pass into the channel to Messi. I think that will work well the next two rounds, but it could run into trouble vs Colombia and definitely in a potential semifinal.
Cape Verde are the cinderella story of the tournament. 3 draws, two lucky ones and one undeserved they should have won against Saudi Arabia. They will obviously play to participate here and I expect them to be brutally outclassed, even if their stats aren’t terrible (2.48-4.81 xG). Argentina’s passing game is nowhere near as good as Spain’s, but their main threat is miles better than what Spain can currently throw in (as long as Yamal isn’t in top form).
Team news/Conditions:
No absences for either, but this match will be played in the Miami heat. Cape Verde drew 1-1 with Uruguay in this stadium.
Odds & Bets:
I’m a bit surprised the market is showing this much respect to Cape Verde. I’d rate them on par with Jordan and the stats look roughly similar too (CPV are a bit better). Argentina beat Jordan 3-1 in the garbage time match, playing Messi off the bench. They started the -2,5 at 2.25, which then fell off a cliff in-play when it looked like they weren’t too bothered. Jordan still conceded from a free kick and a penalty and the second half was a nothingburger. I’d expect a similar line movement in the run-up to this game, considering how CPV outperformed their stats against two stronger teams and Argentina being a public favorite now. The only problem is that it will be played in Miami, which is a soft home advantage to Argentina but could also mean they take it easy after a potential two-goal lead. Brazil beat Scotland 3-0 in Miami, but Scotland gifted them goals. Uruguay drew twice, once against Cape Verde. I’d fancy Argentina to cover still, but I’ll be wary of that and if it comes that far I’ll be covering my handicap with other bets in-play.
🇨🇴Colombia vs 🇬🇭Ghana
Team impressions:
I only watched Colombia against Portugal but that was apparently their best match and one they should have won. They created a lot of small chances with shots from distance and looked physically superior to Portugal in the Miami heat. Colombia play the classic South American type of football from what I saw: run up and down the pitch, scrap, shoot, try to score from a rebound or a set piece or a shot from distance. Their stats are solid but not wow (4.29-2.46 xG). The kind of team I’d expect a major favorite to run close but come up short.
Ghana are another classic African side. Physically strong, few chances, absorb pressure, direct attacks. They frustrated England, even if England created enough chances to notch a win. Also played fairly well against Croatia in what should have been a draw based on performance. Few chances created or conceded (2.06-2.51 xG). This isn’t a good team but also not one I’d expect Colombia just to waltz over.
Team news/Conditions:
No absences for Colombia. Semenyo seems questionable for Ghana, which would be a siginificant blow. Conditions should be sweltering, which Colombia will already be familiar with from their match against Portugal.
Odds & Bets:
I fancy Colombia to win but not at the current price. This could be another scrappy affair and the second straight heat match for Colombia, which I think will show at a latter stage in the tournament. If I had to guess, I’d say betting them in-play at 1.85 or better is solid, but it’s another middle-of-the-night match, so I’ll just sit it out.
What’s Next?
I’ll do another set of previews for the R16 since I write them for my own clarity and as a reminder not to get sidetracked. Let me know if you like a bit of sports talk. I don’t do much of that, but the World Cup is only once every four years.