FIFA World Cup R16 Preview⚽️
The last round was good. This one will be even better.
I must say I was highly skeptical before the World Cup about the extension to 48 teams. But the tournmanet has proved me wrong.
It’s been a terrific World Cup in terms of drama and quality. The new R32 produced several stoppage time winners (Brazil, Belgium, Portugal, Canada), two major penalty shootout dramas (Morocco, Paraguay), a couple of top class performances (France, Spain), and the most enthralling underdog fight I can remember (Cabo fucking Verde). I think the next World Cup will take the logical step to dilute further down to 64 teams to fix the group stage format.
Other than that, I hope this World Cup keeps on giving!
🇨🇦Canada vs 🇲🇦Morocco
Team impressions:
Canada almost had to go to extra time in their R32 against a stubborn but harmless South Africa. They solidified the impression I have: solid team that feeds on energy, enthusiasm, and forced errors by the opponent. They wasted a bunch of chances but got the stoppage time winner off a shot from distance, similar to their equalizer against Bosnia. I felt like Canada played more direct and with a bit more vigor in their home games in the group compared to the R32. It always felt to me as if the goal had to come off an error or from a set piece. But take nothing away from Canada. Their xG differential is one of the highest in the draw (8.87-2.44), albeit against poor opposition and a (mostly) dead rubber vs Switzerland. Outside of that match, I had to go quite far back to find an opponent on Morocco’s level: two friendlies in 2025 (0-0 vs CIV and 0-2 vs MEX). As good as Canada have been, they don’t play this kind of opposition much. Even against the teams I watched them, their finishing is wasteful and their passing isn’t clean (62% completion rate in the final third vs South Africa).
I was very impressed by Morocco and how they managed to overcome the Netherlands from a goal down. The xG in the match (1.38-0.24) tells the story well: Morocco were the team in control and created most chances, the Dutch scored pretty much out of nowhere. It took a stoppage time equalizer, but Morocco were well in control for the entire second half and all of extra time. My only grievance would be that they did not push for the winner enough. Verbruggen saved a clear cut Saibari chance at the start of it, then Morocco seemed content to play down the clock to take it to pens. That could’ve backfired, but it didn’t and they got the deserved win. Morocco play a fascinating combination of physical yet high-quality possession football (89.2% pass completion rate compared to Spain’s 90.9%). Their xG isn’t nominally as good as Canada’s (7.51-3.24), but when you factor in that Morocco played two top 10 sides in Brazil and Holland, it very much is. This is a cohesive side with a strong mentality that in my opinion can beat literally any team in the field.
Team news/Conditions:
Davies came off the bench vs South Africa and might start here. No absences for Morocco, but they may make some changes after 120 minutes in 30 degree heat in Guadalajara altitude. Played in a climate-controlled environment in Houston.
Odds & Bets:
Morocco beat Canada 2-1 in the 2022 World Cup group stage and that’s sort of the result I expect again. I maintain that this Morocco side is one of the most well-put together and dangerous ones in the tournament. If they progress, they will be the first real test for the French dream team offense. Canada don’t play this kind of opposition much and looked outmatched in the first half vs Switzerland against a comparable opponent. Granted, they could have easily drawn that match, but the facts remain that Canada played three of the weakest sides in the tournament to get here (Bosnia, Qatar, South Africa). I think they will put up a fight, but Morocco will ultimately have too much. Fair odds for me are about 1.75 Morocco. I’m also betting over 2.5 bookings at 1.7. Canada have picked up 7 bookings in 4 matches, Morocco two. Only England have fouled more than these two sides, and judging by how Morocco approached the match vs Holland, there should be plenty of openings for tactical fouls.
🇵🇾Paraguay vs 🇫🇷France
Team impressions:
Paraguay pulled off one of the biggest knockout upsets in recent memories by eliminating a piss poor Germany, on pens nonetheless! Sure, Germany got a bit unlucky with the soft foul on the Paraguay keeper being VAR’d off. But if you can barely muster one goal from a hopeful cross in 120 minutes against Paraguay, more went wrong that one questionable ref call. Paraguay did what was within their power: they came forward twice and scored once, then parked the bus and relied on Germany being so unimaginative that this goal carries them to pens, which, historical record or not, is always pretty 5050. But this is still the same Paraguay side that’s on 3 goals from 1.46 xG (conceded 5 from 5.71 xG). A force they are not, and I don’t think this plan will work twice.
France were nothing short of magnifique vs Sweden, but I expected as much in this favorable matchup. After some solid 20 minutes, the wheels came off the Swedish midfield and defense after the first corruption break. Olise was phenomenal and the real MVP, even though Mbappe got a brace. France are a truly frightening side in almost all parts of the team. Their +3.8 xG overperformance in attack is some variance but also a good part just player quality. I think they have some small weaknesses in midfield and in the full-back positions, but this will not be the match that will probe those weaknesses.
Team news/Conditions:
Alderete remains out for Paraguay, France have no absences. The match will be played in excessive 35 degree heat.
Odds & Bets:
Paraguay upsetting France here would probably be the biggest upset in World Cup history. That’s probably not going to happen since Paraguay are the worst side left in the tournament. That said, given the match will be played in adverse conditions and Paraguay’s park-the-bus approach, I think this will be much more of a grind for France. Sweden was a favorable matchup for them. Paraguay isn’t really unfavorable, but they will probably defend deep and hope for another slow French start like in the first half against Senegal or the first 20 minutes against Sweden. Even keeping it to 0-1 can be a success for Paraguay if they can enter the final 10 minutes+stoppage time being just a goal down. Under those conditions, the handicap doesn’t appeal much, even though I think France cover again. I like the clean sheet at 1.67 more. I’m also bidding some handicap at 1.8 and bet some under 3.5 at 1.57. I don’t think France will overexert themselves here and once they are two goals ahead, they’ll look to shut this down by keeping possession.
🇧🇷Brazil vs 🇳🇴Norway
Team impressions:
Brazil did well to get past a spirited challenge from Japan. I felt like Japan did well to put up a challenge, but always expected them to fall short and that’s what happened. In all fairness, they scored from their only real chance off a turnover in midfield and a long-range effort. Brazil dominated the second half start to finish and deserved to win in 90. To me, they still haven’t answered the question if this team is actually good or if the opposition has been poor. I still think they haven’t really been tested defensively outside of the first half against Morocco. In attack, they create mostly through Vini Jr, but he’s also been the stastically most dangerous player in the tournament, so against smaller sides that can keep working.
Norway faced the expected tough test against CIV and came through, even though both goals came somewhat against the run of play. I didn’t expect them to just sail through, but they were definitely a bit lucky to avoid extra time. The story remains the same: King Erling carries most of the attack, while the defensive plan is to concede one goal fewer than is scored. I’d be shocked if Norway manage to keep a clean sheet for the first time against Brazil out of all sides, but I’d be almost just as surprised if they didn’t score.
Team news/Conditions:
Raphinha’s tournament is over, as is Paqueta’s, who came off against Japan. I personally don’t think they will miss him a ton since I don’t rate Paqueta. But he’s on one assist from 0.90 xA and 0.37 xG and tied with Bruno Guimaraes for creating chances for Brazil. He was subbed off for Endrick against Japan, but Endrick was kind of useless and Ancelotti doesn’t seem to like him so TBD who replaces Paqueta. As I said, imo a notable but not crucial absence (missing Raphinha is imo worse). For Norway, Ryerson remains doubtful, a significant absence. This will be another match played in 30+ degree heat, which I think is Brazil’s second after playing Scotland in Miami.
Odds & Bets:
I bet the goals early in this one at 2.04 for over and 1.84 for both teams to score. Both have dropped a good 15-20 ticks since and I’ll just sit on these. I also bought a lot of Norway to reach the QF before their last match. I think Brazil are deserved favorites, but this is closer than the odds indicate. I make this about a 60-40 matchup and expect Norway to give Brazil at the very least a good run for their money. Brazil haven’t faced an attack like Norway’s and nowhere near a striker as prolific as Haaland. Even in the absence of Raphinha and Paqueta, I expect goals on both ends and a fairly open match. I could also see either team make mistakes in the second half as legs get heavier. This match will tell us a lot about Brazil, because if they progress, they should be solid favorite against the winner of the Mexico-England tie. Funny enough, Norway has won the only h2h between those two at the 1998 World Cup. Real ones know:
🇲🇽Mexico vs 🏴England
Team impressions:
I didn’t watch Mexico play Ecuador. Based on the 10mins of highlights, they looked in control from start to finish and played a good first half and controlled proceedings in the second half. That’s now 8-0 goals from 4.78-2.26 xG. Quality or variance? I think it’s more of the latter than the former, but we’ll know after this tie. Either way, Mexico haven’t faced high-quality opposition yet and nowhere near as good a team as England. Their attack imo is pedestrian: they played fewer passes in the final third than Korea and their completion rate is on par with New Zealand. The two goals against Ecuador came from Ecuador being caught playing a high line and a turnover in the opponent’s half. I don’t think England will do them the favor to do either of these. They’re a bottom third team in terms of xG from set pieces (0.63 xG). As you can probably tell, I think Mexico are solid but not more. I’m not sure that and the home advantage will be enough.
England had to labor yet again, barely beating DR Congo in 90 minutes. Their best spells came after the respective corruption breaks, where they played more direct and threatened by crossing it into the box. It wasn’t the finest work from England, but they also could’ve equalized a lot earlier had it not been for the DRC keeper and some bad luck. In a way, going behind was the best thing that could have happened to them. Too often, England are content to kick the ball around and wait for an error or a set piece like they did against Croatia. They have the players to play with more urgency but don’t do that. They’re still one of the better attacking sides in the tournament, on par with Spain in terms of attacking threat. They also have a distinct set piece advantage over Mexico, which could be crucial in this tie. Overall, I see the England win as the type of game you have to win if you go deep. Germany had to beat Algeria 2-1 in extra time in 2014. Argentina got dragged to pens in 2022 against the Netherlands from 2-0 up. These matches happen, but the clock is reset every time. I believe England will be ready for this matchup.
Team news/Conditions:
No absences for Mexico. England will miss James and Quansah remains a doubt at RB. Spence played against DRC but didn’t look great (also wasn’t helped by Madueke). This could be a key duel against Quiñones, Mexico’s biggest threat. I wouldn’t be surprised if Tuchel fields the defensively more solid Saka to help Spence with defensive duties. Match is played in Mexico City at altitude.
Odds & Bets:
Portugal vs Spain is the biggest tie in terms of quality, but this one seems to take it in terms of attention. Reading analysis of Mexico’s home advantage playing at altitude makes it sound like England will travel to outer space to play for a spot in the QF. Mexico’s advantage is real and significant, Tuchel has said as much. But I don’t see it as insurmountable by any means and remain convinced this Mexico team has overperformed and is due for some mean reversion. For one, Mexico’s fabled home record of losing twice in several decades in the Azteca in competitive matches was mostly tacked up vs CONCACAF sides that are about as good as Montenegro and Bulgaria. I think England have a significant advantage with Tuchel as one of the best managers in the game for such an elimination match. I would probably rate him a top 3 manager for such a match and have zero doubts England will be prepared in the best possible manner. Tactically, I expect this to be a slow match, where England keep possession and try to capitalize on an error or a set piece. Mexico will play their usual waiting game and hope they can score from a direct ball similar to how DRC did. I don’t think England would mind going to pens, even though it would definitely hurt their chances for the tournament a lot. I’d make this 1.9 England in 90mins on neutral ground and 2.25 England away. 2.5 is too high for my liking. For comparison, Mexico played Portugal in CdM in a friendly in March and drew 0-0 (0.27-1.24 xG) Predicted score: 1-0 England.
🇵🇹Portugal vs 🇪🇸Spain
Team impressions:
Portugal barely escaped in a dramatic finish against Croatia. The first half was probably their best of the tournament, where they wasted a couple of massive chances and should’ve taken the lead. The second was one of the worst and Croatia absolutely should have taken it to extra time on chances alone, even ignoring the VAR call at the end. Portugal were lucky to be gifted the (correct) pen and then scored the winner more or less out of nowhere. I thought they looked quite good in the first half and more direct with Leao on the right side. After the equalizer, the midfield was totally imbalanced and Croatia pretty much walked through it several times. I though Martinez got really lucky with his subs, even though there is absolutely a case to start Ramos over Ronaldo (won’t happen). Their defense isn’t top tier, particularly in terms of set pieces (1.04 xG conceded vs 0.24 for Spain). Croatia also created 1.34 xG and that’s not factoring in the one (or two?) goals disallowed for offside. Their finishing is good but not clinical enough. This feels like a team that can definitely cause one or several upsets, but I doubt they can win four more elimination matches.
Spain were a bit underrated before their R32. I wonder whether we actually have meaningful new information. They crushed Austria 3-0 (2.8-0.32 xG), but I never expected much different. My main problem with Spain (and they were very good!) is that Yamal is their main threat. Against Austria, they did a great job diversifying their threats (2 assists Cucurella, 1 Baena). When they suck, it’s because everything runs through Yamal and the opponent successfully shuts him down. I’d expect Portugal to be rather prepared for this since Nuno Mendes also shut down Michael Olise in the CL semi-final. How well Spain counter that could decide this tie because they have enough talent to do that.
Team news/Conditions:
No new absences, Spain still without Nico Williams and Pino. Played in climate-controlled conditions.
Odds & Bets:
This is a tricky one. Spain are favorites, but I don’t know whether they’re this much of a favorite. Their opposition has been pretty soft so far, while Portugal has already chewed on three tough nuts (DRC, Colombia, Croatia). This feels closer than the odds make it out to be, but I also concede that Spain are the better team. These two met in the Nations League final that Spain lost on penalties (2-2 AET). Their last full-time loss was in March 2024 (0-1 vs Colombia), their last non-penalty loss in a competitive match was in March 2023 (0-2 in Scotland). In the same timespan Portugal lost to Ireland, Denmark, Georgia, France on pens, Slovenia, and Croatia. I have both teams on the outright and would probably prefer Spain to win, but I’m wary. I’d be interested in both teams to score at 2.0+ but will stay away at current prices. Spain should be about 2.15 for me but I can’t quite pull the trigger on Portugal. Will leave this for in-play.
🇺🇸USA vs 🇧🇪Belgium
Team impressions:
I didn’t watch the R32 against Bosnia, but the stats don’t read too impressive. I maintain that this US team is vastly overrated and that may or may not become evident against Belgium. 10 goals from 5.51 xG is the biggest overperformance of any team remaining, even above France. This is a solid team and playing against mediocre opposition they may advance one more round, but that’s as far as they will go.
Belgium were incredibly lucky to escape against Senegal. They got outplayed from start to minute 85, where Senegal first conceded out of nowhere and then conceded another one from an amateurish goalkeeper mistake. To top it off, Belgium got a somewhat dubious pen in stoppage time of extra time to win it. They showed absolutely nothing for 85 minutes and I highly doubt they’d still be in the competition without the keeper’s mistake. The 1.74-3.58 xG (including one pen for Belgium) is an accurate description of how one-sided this match was. They’re on 7.74-5.52 non-penalty xG, which isn’t too great, considering they played only one semi-decent team in Senegal (and got totally outplayed). Doku is out of shape, Lukaku too, the only player making everything happen is Trossard, who’s top in expected assists in the tournament.
Team news/Conditions:
The US will miss their most impactful player in Balogun, who got sent off against Bosnia. Pepi will start but will not be able to adequately replace Balogun. No absences for Belgium. Match is played in Seattle, conditions are no factor.
Odds & Bets:
I have a small bet on the US to make the QF from before their R32. I also started betting x2 here since I feel that Belgium, bad as they may be, should be slight favorite against the US without their most valuable player. I’m not expecting a high-quality affair here by any means and either team will be a heavy underdog in the QF. Still, Belgium should be about 2.45 for me considering their individual quality and experience. On second look, I also like the under here, because I don’t think the US team will look to get into a high-scoring game without their main threat. Still haven’t decided whether I’ll actually bother watching it live though.
🇦🇷Argentina vs 🇪🇬Egypt
Team impressions:
Argentina were seriously on the ropes against Cape Verde, in what was the most spirited and captivating underdog performance I can remember. They tried to ride out the 1-0 in the Miami heat, then got pegged back once to go to extra time and another time in extra time itself and really barely hung on the final 15 minutes to avoid pens. That said, the same as with England applies here: these are the matches you have to come through. I remain somewhat unimpressed with their unimaginative attacking game that’s built on Messi magic only, but we also have to admit that Cape Verde yet again scored two goals from low-percentage attacks. Argentina still have the second-best defense in the tournament and getting tested in a match that you didn’t expect to get tested in needn’t be a bad thing. Their stats match Spain’s almost to a T (8-2.08 xG). I think it will take a good team to take out Argentina, and those really only come in the SF and final.
I spared myself watching Egypt, so I still can’t say much about them. The scoreline against Australia reads as you would expect (1.32-0.84 xG). They obviously have more quality than Cape Verde, the question is whether Argentina will be caught off guard one more time by the conditions and the opponent as they were in the previous round. It sure reads like the classic R16 matchup that the bigger side wins somewhat comfortably after surviving a scare.
Team news/Conditions:
Argentina should have a full-strength squad. Egypt I think are getting back one player from suspension. Match is played in climate-controlled environment in Atlanta.
Odds & Bets:
I’m not incredibly eager to get on Argentina after that lackluster performance in the R32. At the same time, I don’t see them being so sluggish two times in a row. It looked like they tried to conserve energy and that backfired badly. They could’ve easily tried to push for a second with more urgency and kill the game in 90 minutes. I’d expect Argentina to have learned their lesson. That said, Egypt are a better team and shouldn’t lie down easily. They lost 2-1 to Brazil in a pre-tournament friendly and drew 0-0 with Spain in March. At AFCON they were eliminated by Senegal (0-1). They’ll try to keep things tight at the back, but I don’t see them create much up front. Over 180 minutes against Brazil and Spain, they created less than 0.5 xG. This reads like another 2-0ish win for Argentina and I’ll look to get on clean sheet close to 1.9 and win to nil above evens.
🇨🇭Switzerland vs 🇨🇴Colombia
Team impressions:
I didn’t watch either of these sides in their R32, which is a shame because this is a quite promising and open tie in my opinion. The Switzerland stats read like they took the lead early and then won an unexciting game quite easily. The 2.45 xG is probably misleading: almost 1 xG came from the first goal and 0.65 from a chance at min 81. Algeria completed more passes but couldn’t do much with the possession. Overall, the Swiss are a solid side and this is the type of opponent they can realistically beat without getting lucky.
Colombia dominated from start to finish against Ghana. The 2.08 xG created looked a good representation of the match. Ghana’s keeper made several great saves, they scored another offside goal, and Ghana did not have a shot on target. Colombia already played well against Portugal, and they’ll fancy their chances here. Their tournament stats are worse than Switzerland’s (5-1 goals from 6.48-2.72 xG vs 9-3 goals from 8.82-3.28 xG), but my impression is they’re the slightly stronger team that’s played better opposition.
Team news/Conditions:
Swiss have absences, Colombia miss their first-choice striker Jhon Cordoba. He’s only played 100 minutes at the tournament though and didn’t score from 0.30 xG. Not a significant absence in my opinion. His backup Suarez assisted the goal against Ghana. Match is played in Vancouver, so no heat problems.
Odds & Bets:
I’d expect a fairly open game here with chances on both ends. Not necessarily the highest tempo, but this could go either way, so I’m looking at both teams to score above evens. Colombia won’t enjoy the soft home advantage in Canada the same way they do in the US, which is a nice little bonus for Switzerland. The money line looks just about right, but I’d consider backing Switzerland 1x at 1.8 or better. This is another match that reads draw-ish and could easily go extra time.
What’s Next?
Let’s hope this round is just as good as the last. Good luck!