FIFA World Cup Quarterfinals Preview⚽️
Only 8 matches left. But they should be the best ones.
The R16 was shorter and had fewer extra times than the previous round, but boring it was not! England and Argentina delivered classics, France and Spain controlled, and the four underdogs came through in style, some more some less.
My plan before the tournament was to keep the active betting to a minimum from the quarterfinals onwards, because I expect the odds to be sharp and value to be more difficult to come by the deeper we go. I’ll be working with a lot of the outright positions that I built and will be looking mostly for hedges this round.
Let’s go!
🇫🇷France vs 🇲🇦Morocco
Team impressions:
France had the expected tough nut to crack in Paraguay in a match played in 35 degree heat. They generated only 0.65 xG from open play (and 0.8 xG from the converted pen). 0.35 of those came in the last minute when Mbappe was denied the second goal. In short, they looked every bit as clueless vs Paraguay as Germany did and you have to wonder how they would’ve looked against Germany (probably better). Now they get a much tougher opponent in similar conditions. This should be their first real test, and I’d be surprised if Morocco didn’t test them properly.
Morocco didn’t look great for a good 50mins or so against Canada. But they were clinical: 3 goals from 9 touches in the opposition box and 0.82 xG. Once they took the lead, they only conceded one more good chance from a free kick. Maybe they were surprised by Canada’s high press (allowed 33 touches in their own box vs 20.2 tournament avg). But Canada were, as expected, not clinical or precise enough (only 64% final third passes completed). If Morocco played like this against France, they’d probably get hammered. I don’t really think they will though.
There are a couple of interesting data points I dug up on Opta Sports:
Morocco and France both have a tournament-high (tied with ARG) three goals from fast breaks (presumably counters?).
Both have almost identical average possession per match (60.5% vs 60.4%).
Morocco have conceded only one fast break but France scored two goals from high turnovers (only Belgium and Brazil had more).
Considering this match will also be played in +30 degree heat, I think both teams will look to maintain possession of the ball. But I wouldn’t be surprised if Morocco end up with almost as much or even more possession at the end. In the SF 2022, France took the lead after five minutes, which meant Morocco ended up with more possession (61%), more touches in the opposition box, and more final third passes than France. Even without an early lead, I wouldn’t be shocked if this is an equal contest. Morocco also dominated the ball vs the Netherlands (70%). While France don’t play as passive as they used to, their midfield isn’t as dominant as, say, Spain’s and they do have the players to go fast and direct. Supposedly Doué starts instead of Barcola, which would mean they go less direct and opt for keeping possession of the ball.
Team news/Conditions:
Tchouaméni is still questionable for France as far as I understand, but I expect he won’t play. Saibari is out for Morocco, which is a huge blow considering he’s their most dangerous player in terms of goals and xG. Rahimi has been a competent replacement off the bench, but let’s see how he does as a starter. The match will be played in Boston in 30 degree heat.
Odds & Bets:
I have built positions in all four favorites but am most underweight on France. My rough idea for this match is to add to my France outright if this is tight or if they go behind. I do like the under here as a directional hedge on Morocco. At the same time, I’ve seen some love for over/both teams to score from Neil Mac's Soccer Betting Edge and another account I’m following. I see the argument, but we have a good precedent here in terms of weight of the match and conditions: Morocco’s R32 vs Holland. It was also played in hot conditions and the tempo of the game was pretty slow. Looking at other heat matches, France’s R16 was pretty slow as well. Argentina-Cabo Verde was very slow until the equalizer and even then didn’t become end to end in regular time. Portugal-Colombia had good tempo but went under because of poor finishing. Morocco-Brazil had good tempo in the first half, slowed down after that.
That’s why I like the under, which imo should be 1.75-1.8 rather than the 1.9+ I backed. I’m sympathetic to the BTTS argument and will take some Morocco to score to aim for the 1-1 middle but will stay overweight on under. I think France will be tested for real for the first time here, unlike in the previous one where Paraguay just played for a 0-0 and never threatened on the counter. I could see this going extra time and also bet some draw at half-time. France to come through, but not without breaking a sweat.
🇪🇸Spain vs 🇧🇪Belgium
Team impressions:
I continue to think that Spain are the most underrated team from a betting standpoint (which is why they’re my biggest outright position for now):
They have racked up five clean sheets.
They have the lowest xG conceded in the tournament (1.49 and 0.3 per match vs Argentina’s 0.6 per match).
They concede one shot on target per match.
Their non-penalty attacking output isn’t meaningfully worse than that of the other favorites: 2nd in shots on target and xG per match, more goals per match than England, most touches in the box per match, most final third passes per match at the highest completion rate (83.7%). What they’re missing is a finisher of Kane’s/Mbappé’s quality.
That was visible against Portugal, where I thought Spain controlled the match for all but 15 minutes just around half-time. De la Fuente made changes late, but not too late, to introduce some more directness and it paid off. I’d be surprised if there are changes in the starting lineup against Belgium, but I do hope that in-game management is more responsive if they’re not up after 60 minutes. Spain are a bit boring and I think a slightly worse team than 2024 but still tied-best for me in the tournament. France have the star power in attack, but the Spanish midfield is better and I think they defend better as a unit even if individually the French defense is better.
Belgium surprised with a clear and easy win against the US. Or maybe it wasn’t much of a surprise after Trump made the US team the main character and the Trump curse duly struck. I remain unconvinced by Belgium though. Their attack is prolific (as good as Spain’s stats-wise), but I’d rate their defense roughly on par with Portugal’s or worse. They haven’t played serious opposition yet and even with the changes to the starting lineup, I think that will show. They’ll also miss a rather important holding midfielder in Onana, which won’t help.
Team news/Conditions:
No absences for Spain, Onana out for Belgium. Match is played in climate-controlled conditions.
Odds & Bets:
Spain are the clearest favorite in this round for me, which doesn’t necessarily mean it will be easy. I think Belgium will put up some meaningful resistance after getting their confidence up last match. If De Bruyne starts again, Belgium should set up in a more attacking formation, which should bode well for goals. I like the over here since I expect Belgium to score but could also see Spain cover it alone. Both teams to score at 1.9 looks decent as well, which I’m bidding too. Imo Belgium’s best shot is to make this a bit chaotic and force Spain out of their comfort zone of possession football. Spain haven’t really played a good counterattacking team yet and if they don’t cope well with Belgium (let alone go out), they will have problems in the semifinal as well. I think Spain win this 2-1/3-1 but not without some bumps along the way.
🇳🇴Norway vs 🏴England
Team impressions:
Norway shocked everyone but those who bet on them (me) with their upset vs Brazil. That was quite a strange match. Brazil had several pristine chances to take the lead: the missed pen in the first half, the as-good-as-a-pen chance by Endrick and a couple other half-dangerous situations where Ryerson was outplayed by Vini. But the 2.61 xG conceded is a bit misleading still: 1.6 xG were pens (one came in garbage time) and the Endrick chance was 0.57 xG. So outside of that, Brazil created little and they played like it too: 66% possession for Norway, close to double the amount of passes in the final third (but 15-33 touches in the box). This wasn’t going over and both to score until Norway figured out to serve it directly to Haaland. That’s also the most concerning part about Norway: their defense just isn’t good enough. They’ve played elite opposition, but they’re leaking 1.6 xG and 4.2 shots on target per match (England: 0.68 xG and 2.8 SOT). Their pressing is good but not as good as England’s. Same for their possession game. They’re just not incisive enough and, as good as Haaland is, this can’t work for much longer.
England came through an epic match in the Azteca. They weren’t really better for most or any of it, but they were clinical (6-20 shots, 5-5 on target) and managed to complete the job: win ugly. I think England’s shortcomings weren’t really laid to rest there and they probably won’t be before a potential semi vs Argentina. This is a good team with one exceptional player (Kane) and a second if he turns up (Bellingham, turned up in the Azteca). Up front they don’t have much on Norway, but their defense is more solid. They gave up almost nothing from open play vs Mexico, even when down to 10 men. I can see them enjoy some success down the flanks, where Norway looked the most vulnerable. Gordon is no Vini, but I thought he was good against Mexico. I doubt the pace of play will be as high as in Mexico City though.
Team news/Conditions:
Norway should have all players available despite some illness rumors. England will miss Quansah (sent off) at RB but might get Reece James back as their original first choice. If not, I’d imagine Stones or Spence will fill in. Match is played in Miami in hot conditions, as were Argentina-Cape Verde and Portugal-Colombia.
Odds & Bets:
I’m set here with a significant position on England on the outright and to reach the final and some hedges on Norway to reach the semifinal that I took before the R16. Heavily overweight England, but if they go out it wouldn’t be a total disaster. The money line looks quite fair to me, but I’m bidding some under at 2.25+ for what I expect to be a fairly low-tempo match. England-Mexico was quite slow and England really scored a brace out of the blue to really open it up. Norway-Brazil was also not all that eventful outside of the missed pen in the first half. Considering how slow the Argentina R32 in Miami was, I would not necessarily expect this to be frantic. I wouldn’t go overboard with the under given that both teams are better in attack than in defense. But given the conditions, I’d put the under here at 2.05-2.1.
🇦🇷Argentina vs🇨🇭Switzerland
Team impressions:
Argentina got oh so lucky against Egypt in what really wasn’t that scandalous a match. How fair of Argentina to concede another goal after the maybe-a-bit-controversial 0-2 was disallowed by the VAR. Regardless, it was the second time Argentina were made to work hard by a rather mediocre team, but the market remains undeterred and they’re for some reason still second favorite (reason is probably the easy draw). Their numbers are pretty good—better than England’s in both attack (pen and non-pen xG and set pieces) and defense. They’ve scored more than expected but also conceded more than expected. Realistically, the last two matches should’ve ended 1-0 and maybe 1-0 or 2-1 given their output and style of play. But all that is against the caveat of pretty weak opposition and now they’re getting yet another rather average opponent.
Switzerland did well to come through the most boring tie of the round, even without their (imo) best player in Manzambi. Colombia were just much too passive and left themselves with too few chances given their terrible finishing. This is just a solid team with solid numbers, both in defense and attack. They play a slow methodical game and might not have enough spark but probably enough grit to make it difficult for Argentina.
Team news/Conditions:
No absences for Argentina, Manzambi, Aebischer, Jazquez are out for Switzerland. Conditions are not an issue this time, match is played in evening heat in Kansas City.
Odds & Bets:
This should look quite similar to Argentina’s match against Cape Verde and the 2014 1-0 extra time win. Outside of Messi, I remain unconvinced by Argentina. Do they take it easy and concede because they’re not focused enough or are they just not that good or was it just bad luck to go behind from a set piece against Egypt? I can’t really tell. I have an outright position on Argentina but if England come through, I wouldn’t mind an upset either. That said, I took just a bit of the Argentina win to nil at 2.68 with the same reasoning as in the previous round: Switzerland will probably mostly look to kill the game before it even starts, Argentina won’t make this end to end if it needn’t be. Another 1-0, extra time type of matchup.
What’s Next?
Wishing everyone good luck and let’s hope we get the final 4 we’re all waiting for!