10 Predictions For 2026

Maduro, Ukraine, Fed Chair, World Cup winner...and much more!

What kind of forecaster would I be if I didn’t publish the obligatory ‘2026 forecasts’?

After reviewing 2025, it’s time to look ahead to 2026. And I’m pretty sure it will not be boring at all!

I’ll make 10 predictions — most rather unspectacular and not too edgy — concerning markets that I’m either already involved in or will be tracking next year.

Each prediction has my ballpark fair value, and I ventured into markets I consider myself clueless about just as a challenge and to spice it up a bit. In some of these, I have already taken positions, in some others I amy still take some.

Let’s see what 2026 has in store…

Trump strikes Venezuela but Nicolás Maduro hangs in there

I’m on the record with a wrong prediction (so far) that the US will strike Venezuela:

They technically did strike, only it was carried out by the CIA, not the military. Trump has so far backed off open military conflict with Venezuela. He instead opted to try to smoke out Maduro by choking off oil export revenue and covert ops sabotage. That is clearly not going to be enough. Maduro has called Trump’s bluff.

I’m sticking with my original analysis, which is due an update soon. I still think the US will engage in kinetic strikes that ultimately resolve such a market to Yes on Polymarket. I expect this to happen in Q1 or Q2. If it hasn’t happened by then, I don’t expect it to happen in the back half of the year, considering the upcoming Midterms. They should put a lid on any audacious foreign policy moves, which Trump anyway does not really engage in.

I don’t think these strikes will be enough to oust Maduro though. The current policy seems to at least be achieving the objective of squeezing Cuba — something Marco Rubio will be keen on. My impression from publicly available sources is that Maduro is keen to hang on to power. At the same time, I’m not sure his grip on power is that strong. A revenue squeeze and possible increase in Venezuela’s inflation rate won’t strengthen it. Maduro could easily do an Assad if only there was physical force testing his support among the military’s rank and file.

As long as that does not happen, I have a hard time seeing him quietly sailing off to foreign shores. Fair price is imo low 70s for Maduro to remain in power in 2026.

The war in Ukraine continues (but will end in 2027)

My favorite market will surely be the most popular geopolitical market of 2026.

To absolutely nobody’s surprise (at least nobody with an ounce of understanding of the war), Trump did not have it settled on day 1 or any other day. He did manage to bend Ukraine much more towards Russia’s position, but the gap remains sizeable, albeit much smaller than nine months ago.

Everything I wrote about in my last deep dive thus still stands:

There is a way how Trump can have the war settled in 2026 — if a dirty peace deal becomes more advantageous to Zelensky than continuing the war. I may write a note about this soon. But Zelensky domestically and Ukraine as a whole are battled and bruised yet still standing.

I do not expect Russia to gain enough ground in Donbas to force Zelensky into such a deal, though I absolutely don’t exclude it. Russia would have to come close enough to Sloviansk and Kramatorsk to make a military retreat (and the subsequent legal hoops to ratify such a move) from these cities look less like obvious high treason. I’m not sure this will be the case.

However, the opposite is equally possible — Russia making quicker-than-expected progress and upping demands when Zelensky is ready to agree. And security guarantees remain as elusive as ever.

Still, I do think it will be an eventful year for Zelensky and Ukraine, and the end of the war will come in real striking distance. Zelensky’s weakening domestic grip on power and increased exernal pressure by the Europeans will set the stage for an end in 2027. Just check the European election schedule.

Fair price here is in the 20s on Yes, but I think playing monthly strikes on No and stepping in on headline pumps is the way to go if you want to fade the end. Beware though: this is much less of a bond than in 2025.

Ayatollah Khamenei ceases to be the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran

I came up with this idea before the latest protests that broke out in Iran. The Middle East remains my nemesis, so my conviction here isn’t too high.

But there are several obvious risks for the Ayatollah:

• He is 86 and disappeared after Israel’s short-lived war in 2025, reminding everyone that old people die sooner or later.

• Bibi still wants regime change in Iran.

• Their economy is still a ‘total mess’.

It’s a bit of a lazy prediction, and I think the current odds reflect the accurate price (probably) quite well. Predicting when autocrats fall is like predicting earthquakes: nothing ever happens before eventually someone just does things. I added this mainly because I was looking for a tenth prediction and because it seems well within the realm of possibility, while still being an underdog.

Christopher Waller or Rick Rieder becomes the new Fed Chair

The new Fed Chair will be Donald Trump’s most consequential domestic policy decision. And looking at his cuisine track record of serving taco (tariffs) after taco (firing Powell) after taco (striking Venezuela), would you really want to bet against another taco?

I laid out some of my thinking in my Fed deep dive a couple of months ago:

I might do another update to this in January, but at least the ‘Trump will take his sweet time’ part of my prediction has aged well. I expect Trump to announce his pick between January 15 and February 15. Most likely the last week of January or the first week of February, around the time the rate hold becomes clear.

I also think whom he will pick will remain largely a function of whose judgement he trusts most (and talks to last before truthing it). The market has correctly soured quite a bit on Hassett. Betting against Hassett is the taco trade since Trump is the only person that wants him and would have to own the choice. However, I do think he really wants Hassett and is really pissed about having picked “numbskull” Jerome Powell last time. He may not want to repeat the same failure. As we saw with tariffs, Trump is open to hazardous moves in this term.

There’s no taco on a nomination though, so Hassett as first among equals looks kind of fairly priced at the moment. I am not sold on Warsh for different reasons, but I do think Christopher Waller and Rick Rieder are wildly underrated by the market. In my opinion, their combined chances should exceed Warsh’s odds, and I will probably write a deep dive on this the first week of January (if Trump doesn’t pick early).

One of the most exciting markets around right now.

The GOP gets clobbered in the Midterms but (barely) keeps the Senate

I’m not well-versed in US domestic politics and have actually never bet a Midterm election, so don’t expect too much here.

This is mostly a consensus call. The GOP and Trump are wildly unpopular (27:63 among independents in the latest poll I found), so I’d expect them to get smacked in the mouth at the next election. I don’t see the current “K-shaped economy” trend turning around anytime soon. More money for data centers, less money for plebs. That’s the trend and I’m not betting against it.

From what I know, the Senate map makes it unlikely for Democrats to take both chambers, hence a good old bet on the favorite. I might buy a bit of this in the next few days just to see how I feel about. Probably fair value at this price though.

Viktor Orban loses the election in Hungary

The election in Hungary could be the most exciting foreign election of 2026.

Viktor Orban is a good buddy of Trump, and I expect MAGA to do everything in its power to shill Orban as hard as possible and help him rig the election in his favor. Polling in Hungary is all over the place, with non-government pollsters showing Orban down by 15 points, while government pollsters show him up 15 points.

I would be shocked if Orban didn’t trade as favorite again at some point. But I do think he will lose the election and, importantly, step down. I already have some Peter Magyar shares and plan to be heavily involved in this one. Expect at least one very thorough deep dive before the election on April 30.

Fair value? Your guess is as good as mine, but for now I’d eyeball it in the high 30s for Orban to win. I plan to do extensive research in the next three months to be much more confident about my call.

The SPX outperforms BTC and gold

This is more of a wild guess in all fairness. Midterm years tend to be bad for markets, though second term midterm years are apparently better.

The SPX looks kind of toppy though and gold has had its best year in…decades? Bitcoin laughably underperformed in 2025, but I just don’t see how digital pet rock suddenly becomes appealing in 2026. The ‘debasement trade’ narrative was perfect for BTC but nobody bought. Unless 2026 is a risk-on year (which I don’t expect), BTC will struggle again. I don’t think ‘hurr durr mass adoption’ matters at all. If you want to bet on crypto, bet on stablecoin growth (which I may in fact do after some research).

Long story short: I have no clue, but I think markets will struggle in 2026. Thus, SPX should be the ‘cleanest dirty shirt’. I’m bidding a bit of this bet just to have some skin in the game.

Elon Musk becomes the world's first trillionaire

Another unexciting consensus call but hey, every little bit counts.

I have honestly no clue about this bet. I guess it’s fair value after the Space X IPO announcement? My only heuristic here is that there is no better way to bet on space than bidding the Space X IPO. And that should make Elon even richer than he already is. Maybe someone smarter and more knowledgeable than me can chime in, but I’d be surprised if it did not turn out to be a success.

Spain wins the FIFA World Cup 2026

Two more sports predictions to cap it off.

Predicting the favorite to win isn’t terribly exciting, but Spain has the best team in what will probably be a physically demanding and long tournament. The path isn’t all that easy:

• R16: Portugal

• QF: Netherlands

• SF: France

• Final: Argentina/England

But then again, I don’t see any other team with a significantly easier path (and I’m not picking England). If Spain gets past Portugal, who I think have a terrific squad at the moment, I see them going all the way. Otherwise, Portugal becomes my backup pick.

On the other side, I would pick England to make the final because hey, they have a lot of good players and a German manager! But I’m not that much of a contrarian to predict England to win the World Cup.

Should be a good one once we make it past the laughably diluted group stage and R32.

Jannik Sinner wins more Grand Slams than Carlos Alcaraz and ends the year as #1

One more tennis prediction to cap it off.

I’ll pat myself on the back one last time for correctly calling 4/4 big finals between Alcaraz and Sinner in 2025. But now it’s time to move on, and imo Sinner will become the man to beat in 2026.

Alcaraz recently split with his long-time coach Ferrero, which I expect to leave a mark on his game. Even if Alcaraz apparently wasn’t always a fan of Ferrero’s stoic approach, I think they were a great match and one that Alcaraz won’t easily replace. Splitting from a fruitful long-term relationship will have an impact on him, so one side prediction I make is Alcaraz to win at most one slam in 2026.

Sinner on the other hand had a terrific end to 2025 and enters the new year as the heavy favorite at the tournament that suits him most. No value in backing 50c imo, but I also don’t expect these odds to shorten at any point before the final to be honest. The fast hard courts in Melbourne are perfect for Sinner’s game. He was one point away from winning the French last year (which he will achieve in 2026) and come Wimbledon, he will firmly look like the man to beat. Plus, Jannik has a hot new girlfriend (just don’t ask how many other athletes she’s been with before him), so he will be well taken care of!

Sinner to dominate 2026 and win three slams. Bonus prediction: Joao Fonseca becomes the breakout star of the year.

That’s all for 2026 folks. It’s been a fun year. Let’s make the next one even better:

Good luck and I’ll see you next year!